Lottery Ticket (Speculative) vs Cross-Sectional Momentum
Two published track records side by side — same data, same methodology, zero verdicts.
Lottery Ticket (Speculative)
speculativePiles into the names with the biggest recent single-day pops. High variance, for entertainment only — no edge is claimed, and history suggests these names tend to disappoint. Buckle up.
Full track record →
Cross-Sectional Momentum
coreHolds the strongest-trending names (12-month return, skipping the last month), equally weighted, refreshed monthly.
Full track record →
The numbers, side by side
| Lottery Ticket (Speculative) | Cross-Sectional Momentum | |
|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 12.0% | 13.5% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 43.5% | 42.1% |
| Sharpe | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| Sortino | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| Max drawdown | -49.6% | -65.0% |
| Calmar | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Simulated since | 2020-10 | 2021-10 |
Simulated backtests (up to 6 years of point-in-time data, costs included) — not live results. Methodology: here. Past performance does not predict future results.
What the data says
- Cross-Sectional Momentum posted the higher CAGR (13.5% vs 12.0%).
- Lottery Ticket (Speculative) fell less at its worst (-49.6% vs -65.0%).
- Cross-Sectional Momentum had the calmer ride (volatility 42.1% vs 43.5%).
These are facts from the published snapshots, not a recommendation — the rules differ in their risk profile. Overlay both equity curves in the interactive comparison tool.