Lottery Ticket (Speculative) vs Cross-Sectional Momentum
Two published track records side by side — same data, same methodology, zero verdicts.
Lottery Ticket (Speculative)
speculativePiles into the names with the biggest recent single-day pops. High variance, for entertainment only — no edge is claimed, and history suggests these names tend to disappoint. Buckle up.
Full track record →
Cross-Sectional Momentum
coreHolds the strongest-trending names (12-month return, skipping the last month), equally weighted, refreshed monthly.
Full track record →
The numbers, side by side
| Lottery Ticket (Speculative) | Cross-Sectional Momentum | |
|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 10.2% | 15.5% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 39.9% | 38.7% |
| Sharpe | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| Sortino | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| Max drawdown | -46.0% | -66.7% |
| Calmar | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Simulated since | 2020-08 | 2021-08 |
Simulated backtests (~5 years of point-in-time data, costs included) — not live results. Methodology: here. Past performance does not predict future results.
What the data says
- Cross-Sectional Momentum posted the higher CAGR (15.5% vs 10.2%).
- Lottery Ticket (Speculative) fell less at its worst (-46.0% vs -66.7%).
- Cross-Sectional Momentum had the calmer ride (volatility 38.7% vs 39.9%).
These are facts from the published snapshots, not a recommendation — different rules fit different risk tolerances. Overlay both equity curves in the interactive comparison tool.