Safe Real Yield US core
Holds SHORT-TERM inflation-protected US Treasuries (VTIP) — the 'real risk-free rate' (~2.3% real, plus CPI) at low duration, so it defends purchasing power while staying much calmer than broad TIPS. Still not perfectly flat — even short TIPS dipped when real rates jumped in 2022. FX for non-USD holders; the PLN equivalent is inflation-linked COI/EDO bonds.
Backtest window: 2020-07-31 → 2026-06-30 · as of 2026-06-30 (updated quarterly)
Full methodology & limitations
Track records are simulated backtests, not live results. Methodology and current limitations: (1) Universe membership is real point-in-time index constituents - Nasdaq-100 (US) and WIG20 (PL), with dated add/drop history - so backtests see each index as it actually was, with no survivorship from later additions. Prices are adjusted close (total-return). When the backtest runs on the licensed, delisted-capable feed (EODHD), index members that later delisted or renamed are still priced and INCLUDED, closing the survivorship gap on the price side; when it runs on the keyless fallback feed, some delisted names are unpriced and dropped, which can flatter drawdowns. Two smaller residuals remain: the EU sleeve plus WIG20's most recent quarters are not yet point-in-time membership, and a few long-delisted tickers may still be unresolved. (2) Costs are charged per market on each rebalance's turnover - 5 bps for US names, 10 bps for EU, 20 bps for Warsaw (GPW) - the conservative end of typical half-spread-plus-fees for liquid names; market impact and FX conversion are not modelled (negligible at retail size, understated for large money). (3) Prices are total-return (dividends reinvested) where the data feed supports it. (4) Sharpe and Sortino use a flat 3%/yr cash (risk-free) rate, approximately the average US T-bill yield over the backtest window; actual cash rates varied 0-5% within it and Polish rates were mostly higher, so ratios are approximate. (5) Cross-market calendar gaps are bridged by carrying the last known price forward, which can modestly understate day-to-day volatility. (6) Rebalances are simulated at the same closing price the signal is computed from (close-to-close execution); a live follower trades at the next session's prices, so simulated results may differ from what next-bar execution would have produced. Past simulated performance does not predict future results.
Hover any metric above — I'll explain what it means.
Track record
Dashed line = Safe Yield (the risk-free rate) — the bar every strategy should beat.
Simulated backtest — methodology & limitations above, next to the stats.
This month's model portfolio
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How it works — in plain words
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How to buy this — in your currency
Public information on how anyone buys these instruments — estimates you review, not advice. You buy in your own account; rates are mid-2026 and move.
🇵🇱 PLN — COI (4y) / EDO (10y) inflation-linked retail bonds
- Register at obligacjeskarbowe.pl (or activate it inside iPKO / Pekao online) — free.
- The two candidates are COI 4-year (~4.75% year 1, then CPI + 1.5%) and EDO 10-year (~5.35%, then CPI + 2.0%), 100 zł each.
- The rate re-indexes to Polish CPI every year — your real value is protected, in złoty.
Cost: Zero fees; 19% Belka auto-withheld (EDO defers it to redemption). Minimum 1 bond = 100 zł.
The złoty inflation hedge — no FX risk, and the closest Polish equivalent of US TIPS.
🇪🇺 EUR — iShares € Inflation Linked Govt Bond UCITS (IBCI)
- In your broker, search the iShares € Inflation Linked Govt Bond UCITS ETF (IBCI, ISIN IE00B0M62V02) on Xetra.
- It holds euro-area inflation-linked government bonds (France, Germany, Italy).
Cost: ~0.09%/yr TER; broker commission (often €0 at XTB). Distributions taxed 19% Belka for a PL holder.
Euro inflation protection — it carries duration like every linker, so it is not flat.
🇺🇸 USD — VTIP / SCHP / TIP (short → broad TIPS ETFs) or TreasuryDirect
- In a US broker, search VTIP (short — what this strategy holds), SCHP, or TIP (broader, bigger price swings).
- Or buy individual TIPS straight from TreasuryDirect.gov ($0 fee; 5/10/30-year auctions).
Cost: TER ~0.03-0.20%; $0 commission at major US brokers / TreasuryDirect. Real yield ~2.3% + CPI.
This strategy holds VTIP (short) — it swings far less than broad TIP; a non-USD holder still takes FX risk.
Full landscape (bonds by country, broker cash rates, exotics) — docs/research/SAFE_YIELD.md.
Update history
| As of | What changed |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Model update: no material change this month |
| 2026-07-11 | Initial model portfolio published (1 position(s)) |
Grounded in published research
A documented, peer-reviewed effect — cited so you can read the source yourself, not take our word for it. Implementation and results are ours (see methodology); the underlying finding is the literature's.
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