Safe Yield

US core

Parks 100% in short-term government T-bills (BIL, 1-3 month US Treasuries) — the risk-free rate in USD, at near-zero volatility. A safe harbour and the benchmark every other strategy must beat. Not truly risk-free once you cross currencies (FX), sell long bonds early (duration) or count inflation — match it to your own currency (PLN: EDO/ETFBCASH, EUR: XEON).

This strategy's universe (1) →

2.9%CAGR

-0.45Sharpe

-0.70Sortino

0.3%Volatility

-0.1%Max drawdown

—Calmar

Worst stretch in the backtest: -0.1% — a simulated $1,000 would have dipped to ~$998 before recovering.

Backtest window: 2020-06-30 → 2026-06-30 · as of 2026-06-30 (updated quarterly)

This window does not include the COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) and the 2008 financial crisis.

Simulated backtest — not live results. Real point-in-time universes; total-return prices; per-market costs (US 5 / EU 10 / GPW 20 bps); Sharpe & Sortino use a flat 3%/yr cash rate. Returns are computed on each listing's local-currency prices, without currency conversion. They also exclude what following this costs you in real life: the subscription fee (e.g. $6/mo ≈ 7%/yr on a $1,000 account), tax on gains, and currency-conversion costs on foreign-listed trades.

Full methodology & limitations

Track records are simulated backtests, not live results. Methodology and current limitations: (1) Universe membership is real point-in-time index constituents - Nasdaq-100 (US) and WIG20 (PL), with dated add/drop history - so backtests see each index as it actually was, with no survivorship from later additions. Prices are adjusted close (total-return). When the backtest runs on the licensed, delisted-capable feed (EODHD), index members that later delisted or renamed are still priced and INCLUDED, closing the survivorship gap on the price side; when it runs on the keyless fallback feed, some delisted names are unpriced and dropped, which can flatter drawdowns. Two smaller residuals remain: the EU sleeve plus WIG20's most recent quarters are not yet point-in-time membership, and a few long-delisted tickers may still be unresolved. (2) Costs are charged per market on each rebalance's turnover - 5 bps for US names, 10 bps for EU, 20 bps for Warsaw (GPW) - the conservative end of typical half-spread-plus-fees for liquid names; market impact and FX conversion are not modelled (negligible at retail size, understated for large money). (3) Prices are total-return (dividends reinvested) where the data feed supports it. (4) Sharpe and Sortino use a flat 3%/yr cash (risk-free) rate, approximately the average US T-bill yield over the backtest window; actual cash rates varied 0-5% within it and Polish rates were mostly higher, so ratios are approximate. (5) Cross-market calendar gaps are bridged by carrying the last known price forward, which can modestly understate day-to-day volatility. (6) Rebalances are simulated at the same closing price the signal is computed from (close-to-close execution); a live follower trades at the next session's prices, so simulated results may differ from what next-bar execution would have produced. Past simulated performance does not predict future results.

ℹ️ This IS the risk-free-rate benchmark. Its return ≈ cash, so Sharpe and Sortino sit near zero by construction — a tiny excess return over near-zero volatility is just noise, and its sign flips on the assumed cash rate. Read the CAGR and how flat the line is, not those ratios.

Hover any metric above — I'll explain what it means.

How you'd carry it out in your broker

Every model portfolio update publishes as a plain list of tickers and weights — the exact same file for every subscriber. Here's the general shape of loading that into four popular brokers; the actual tickers and weights only appear once you unlock this strategy.

This strategy has averaged 0.0 changes in the model portfolio per month, over its last publications.

XTB, Trading 212, IBKR, Revolut

XTB

Each published ticker is searchable in the XTB app/web platform.
XTB has no basket/pie import — each ticker's published weight is its share of the model portfolio; whether and how much to trade is your own decision.

Trading 212

Portfolio → Pies → Create Pie.
Each published ticker goes in with its published weight % — the Pie then tracks that allocation for you.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR)

Once unlocked, the model portfolio downloads as a CSV.
Classic TWS: File → Import Watchlist reads that file — each ticker's published weight is its share of the model portfolio.

Revolut

Each published ticker is searchable in the Invest tab.
Revolut has no basket import — each ticker's published weight is its share of the model portfolio; whether and how much to trade is your own decision.

General information about loading a published, identical-for-everyone list into a broker — not a personal recommendation. Whether and how much to trade is your own decision, in your own account; we never trade on your behalf.

Track record

Chart data (year by year)

Year	Simulated return
2020 (from Jun)	-0.0%
2021	-0.1%
2022	+1.4%
2023	+4.7%
2024	+5.2%
2025	+4.2%
2026	+1.8% (to 2026-06-30)

Simulated backtest — methodology & limitations above, next to the stats.

Backtest window full record

This month's model portfolio

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How it works — in plain words

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How to buy this — in your currency

Public information on how anyone buys these instruments — estimates you review, not advice. You buy in your own account; rates are mid-2026 and move.

🇵🇱 PLN — EDO retail bonds / ETFBCASH

Register at obligacjeskarbowe.pl (or activate it inside iPKO / Pekao online) — free.
The standard route is EDO 10-year bonds at 100 zł each (minimum 1 bond); ~5.35% first year, then CPI + 2%.
Prefer daily liquidity over a 10-year lock? ETFBCASH on the GPW (any Polish broker) is the liquid alternative.

Cost: Retail bonds: ZERO purchase/custody/redemption fees. ETFBCASH ~0.40%/yr. 19% Belka tax is auto-withheld — and EDO defers it (compounds pre-tax to redemption).

Your own currency, no FX risk — the genuinely risk-free option for a Polish saver.

🇪🇺 EUR — XEON (€STR money-market UCITS)

In your broker, search XEON (ISIN LU0290358497) on Xetra.
A €10,000 allocation works out to roughly 66 shares × ~€150. It tracks the €STR overnight rate (~2%).

Cost: XTB €0 up to €100k/month, IBKR ~€1.25 minimum; plus 0.10%/yr TER. Accumulating, so the 19% Belka is deferred until you sell.

EU retail generally CAN'T buy the US bill ETFs (SGOV/BIL) — no PRIIPs KID document, so the broker blocks the order. XEON is the euro-denominated equivalent.

🇺🇸 USD — BIL / SGOV (1-3 month T-bill ETF)

In a US broker (Schwab / Fidelity / IBKR-US), search BIL or SGOV.
A $10,000 allocation works out to ~100 shares — T-bills straight from TreasuryDirect.gov ($0 fee) are the direct alternative.

Cost: $0 commission at major US brokers; ~0.09%/yr TER; ~3.6% yield. A foreign holder pays 0% US withholding (file W-8BEN); interest is US-state-tax-exempt.

This is exactly what Safe Yield holds. A non-USD investor takes PLN/USD FX risk — match it to your own currency above.

🏦 Any — Broker cash interest (the lazy option)

Trade Republic — 6% on PLN (promo to 31 Jul 2026), ~2-3% EUR; a real BANK deposit (€100k guarantee) and the PL branch auto-withholds Belka.
XTB — ~2.7% PLN standard (5.1% for the first 90 days), ~3.4% USD; no threshold, but it's an investment firm, not a bank.
IBKR — ~3.1% USD, but the first ~$10k earns 0% and the full rate needs account value over $100k.
DEGIRO pays 0%. Fund-backed 'cash' (Trading 212 QMMF, Lightyear, Revolut Flexible) is an investment, not deposit-guaranteed.

Cost: Usually free to hold. Catch: bank deposits are guaranteed; money-market-fund 'cash' is not, and a PL resident self-reports 19% Belka on it.

⚠️ Rates are as-of mid-2026 and FLOAT with central banks; promos EXPIRE (Trade Republic's 6% ends 31 Jul 2026). We re-check these periodically — verify the live rate before acting. Full, dated table: docs/research/SAFE_YIELD.md.

Full landscape (bonds by country, broker cash rates, exotics) — docs/research/SAFE_YIELD.md.

Live since 2026-07-13 through 2026-08-31: 0.4% (1 mo) — the result of the published portfolios, entering at the next session's close. This is not a backtest.

Update history

As of	What changed
2026-09-03	Model update: no material change this month
2026-08-03	Model update: no material change this month
2026-07-21	Initial model portfolio published (1 position(s))

Grounded in published research

The peer-reviewed findings this strategy is built on:

Fama, E. (1984). Forward and Spot Exchange Rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 14(3). (uncovered interest parity — a high nominal yield prices in an expected currency depreciation)
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards. Wiley. (the risk-free rate as the anchor from which every risk premium is measured)
Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M., Kleshchelski, I. & Rebelo, S. (2011). Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade? Review of Financial Studies, 24(3). (the caveat: high-yield carry is compensation for rare, large currency crashes)

A documented, peer-reviewed effect — cited so you can read the source yourself, not take our word for it. Implementation and results are ours (see methodology); the underlying finding is the literature's.

Understand this strategy

Plain-language explainers behind the mechanics above.

This strategy's rules and every model-portfolio update are written and run by Antoni Zieliński, HedgeYourOwn's founder — not a committee, not a black box. He is not an investment adviser.