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2.9%CAGR
-0.29Sharpe
-0.46Sortino
0.3%Volatility
-0.1%Max drawdown
Calmar

Backtest window: 2020-07-31 → 2026-06-30 · as of 2026-06-30 (updated quarterly)

Simulated backtest — not live results. Real point-in-time universes; total-return prices; per-market costs (US 5 / EU 10 / GPW 20 bps); Sharpe & Sortino use a flat 3%/yr cash rate.
Full methodology & limitations

Track records are simulated backtests, not live results. Methodology and current limitations: (1) Universe membership is real point-in-time index constituents - Nasdaq-100 (US) and WIG20 (PL), with dated add/drop history - so backtests see each index as it actually was, with no survivorship from later additions. Prices are adjusted close (total-return). When the backtest runs on the licensed, delisted-capable feed (EODHD), index members that later delisted or renamed are still priced and INCLUDED, closing the survivorship gap on the price side; when it runs on the keyless fallback feed, some delisted names are unpriced and dropped, which can flatter drawdowns. Two smaller residuals remain: the EU sleeve plus WIG20's most recent quarters are not yet point-in-time membership, and a few long-delisted tickers may still be unresolved. (2) Costs are charged per market on each rebalance's turnover - 5 bps for US names, 10 bps for EU, 20 bps for Warsaw (GPW) - the conservative end of typical half-spread-plus-fees for liquid names; market impact and FX conversion are not modelled (negligible at retail size, understated for large money). (3) Prices are total-return (dividends reinvested) where the data feed supports it. (4) Sharpe and Sortino use a flat 3%/yr cash (risk-free) rate, approximately the average US T-bill yield over the backtest window; actual cash rates varied 0-5% within it and Polish rates were mostly higher, so ratios are approximate. (5) Cross-market calendar gaps are bridged by carrying the last known price forward, which can modestly understate day-to-day volatility. (6) Rebalances are simulated at the same closing price the signal is computed from (close-to-close execution); a live follower trades at the next session's prices, so simulated results may differ from what next-bar execution would have produced. Past simulated performance does not predict future results.

ℹ️ This IS the risk-free-rate benchmark. Its return ≈ cash, so Sharpe and Sortino sit near zero by construction — a tiny excess return over near-zero volatility is just noise, and its sign flips on the assumed cash rate. Read the CAGR and how flat the line is, not those ratios.

Hover any metric above — I'll explain what it means.

Track record

Simulated backtest — methodology & limitations above, next to the stats.

full record

This month's model portfolio

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How it works — in plain words

How to buy this — in your currency

Public information on how anyone buys these instruments — estimates you review, not advice. You buy in your own account; rates are mid-2026 and move.

🇵🇱 PLN — EDO retail bonds / ETFBCASH

  1. Register at obligacjeskarbowe.pl (or activate it inside iPKO / Pekao online) — free.
  2. The standard route is EDO 10-year bonds at 100 zł each (minimum 1 bond); ~5.35% first year, then CPI + 2%.
  3. Prefer daily liquidity over a 10-year lock? ETFBCASH on the GPW (any Polish broker) is the liquid alternative.

Cost: Retail bonds: ZERO purchase/custody/redemption fees. ETFBCASH ~0.40%/yr. 19% Belka tax is auto-withheld — and EDO defers it (compounds pre-tax to redemption).

Your own currency, no FX risk — the genuinely risk-free option for a Polish saver.

🇪🇺 EUR — XEON (€STR money-market UCITS)

  1. In your broker, search XEON (ISIN LU0290358497) on Xetra.
  2. A €10,000 allocation works out to roughly 66 shares × ~€150. It tracks the €STR overnight rate (~2%).

Cost: XTB €0 up to €100k/month, IBKR ~€1.25 minimum; plus 0.10%/yr TER. Accumulating, so the 19% Belka is deferred until you sell.

EU retail generally CAN'T buy the US bill ETFs (SGOV/BIL) — no PRIIPs KID document, so the broker blocks the order. XEON is the euro-denominated equivalent.

🇺🇸 USD — BIL / SGOV (1-3 month T-bill ETF)

  1. In a US broker (Schwab / Fidelity / IBKR-US), search BIL or SGOV.
  2. A $10,000 allocation works out to ~100 shares — T-bills straight from TreasuryDirect.gov ($0 fee) are the direct alternative.

Cost: $0 commission at major US brokers; ~0.09%/yr TER; ~3.6% yield. A foreign holder pays 0% US withholding (file W-8BEN); interest is US-state-tax-exempt.

This is exactly what Safe Yield holds. A non-USD investor takes PLN/USD FX risk — match it to your own currency above.

🏦 Any — Broker cash interest (the lazy option)

  1. Trade Republic — 6% on PLN (promo to 31 Jul 2026), ~2-3% EUR; a real BANK deposit (€100k guarantee) and the PL branch auto-withholds Belka.
  2. XTB — ~2.7% PLN standard (5.1% for the first 90 days), ~3.4% USD; no threshold, but it's an investment firm, not a bank.
  3. IBKR — ~3.1% USD, but the first ~$10k earns 0% and the full rate needs account value over $100k.
  4. DEGIRO pays 0%. Fund-backed 'cash' (Trading 212 QMMF, Lightyear, Revolut Flexible) is an investment, not deposit-guaranteed.

Cost: Usually free to hold. Catch: bank deposits are guaranteed; money-market-fund 'cash' is not, and a PL resident self-reports 19% Belka on it.

⚠️ Rates are as-of mid-2026 and FLOAT with central banks; promos EXPIRE (Trade Republic's 6% ends 31 Jul 2026). We re-check these periodically — verify the live rate before acting. Full, dated table: docs/research/SAFE_YIELD.md.

Full landscape (bonds by country, broker cash rates, exotics) — docs/research/SAFE_YIELD.md.

Update history

As ofWhat changed
2026-07-21Model update: no material change this month
2026-07-11Initial model portfolio published (1 position(s))