Safe Yield US core
Parks 100% in short-term government T-bills (BIL, 1-3 month US Treasuries) — the risk-free rate in USD, at near-zero volatility. A safe harbour and the benchmark every other strategy must beat. Not truly risk-free once you cross currencies (FX), sell long bonds early (duration) or count inflation — match it to your own currency (PLN: EDO/ETFBCASH, EUR: XEON).
Backtest window: 2020-07-31 → 2026-06-30 · as of 2026-06-30 (updated quarterly)
Full methodology & limitations
Track records are simulated backtests, not live results. Methodology and current limitations: (1) Universe membership is real point-in-time index constituents - Nasdaq-100 (US) and WIG20 (PL), with dated add/drop history - so backtests see each index as it actually was, with no survivorship from later additions. Prices are adjusted close (total-return). When the backtest runs on the licensed, delisted-capable feed (EODHD), index members that later delisted or renamed are still priced and INCLUDED, closing the survivorship gap on the price side; when it runs on the keyless fallback feed, some delisted names are unpriced and dropped, which can flatter drawdowns. Two smaller residuals remain: the EU sleeve plus WIG20's most recent quarters are not yet point-in-time membership, and a few long-delisted tickers may still be unresolved. (2) Costs are charged per market on each rebalance's turnover - 5 bps for US names, 10 bps for EU, 20 bps for Warsaw (GPW) - the conservative end of typical half-spread-plus-fees for liquid names; market impact and FX conversion are not modelled (negligible at retail size, understated for large money). (3) Prices are total-return (dividends reinvested) where the data feed supports it. (4) Sharpe and Sortino use a flat 3%/yr cash (risk-free) rate, approximately the average US T-bill yield over the backtest window; actual cash rates varied 0-5% within it and Polish rates were mostly higher, so ratios are approximate. (5) Cross-market calendar gaps are bridged by carrying the last known price forward, which can modestly understate day-to-day volatility. (6) Rebalances are simulated at the same closing price the signal is computed from (close-to-close execution); a live follower trades at the next session's prices, so simulated results may differ from what next-bar execution would have produced. Past simulated performance does not predict future results.
Hover any metric above — I'll explain what it means.
Track record
Simulated backtest — methodology & limitations above, next to the stats.
This month's model portfolio
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How it works — in plain words
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How to buy this — in your currency
Public information on how anyone buys these instruments — estimates you review, not advice. You buy in your own account; rates are mid-2026 and move.
🇵🇱 PLN — EDO retail bonds / ETFBCASH
- Register at obligacjeskarbowe.pl (or activate it inside iPKO / Pekao online) — free.
- The standard route is EDO 10-year bonds at 100 zł each (minimum 1 bond); ~5.35% first year, then CPI + 2%.
- Prefer daily liquidity over a 10-year lock? ETFBCASH on the GPW (any Polish broker) is the liquid alternative.
Cost: Retail bonds: ZERO purchase/custody/redemption fees. ETFBCASH ~0.40%/yr. 19% Belka tax is auto-withheld — and EDO defers it (compounds pre-tax to redemption).
Your own currency, no FX risk — the genuinely risk-free option for a Polish saver.
🇪🇺 EUR — XEON (€STR money-market UCITS)
- In your broker, search XEON (ISIN LU0290358497) on Xetra.
- A €10,000 allocation works out to roughly 66 shares × ~€150. It tracks the €STR overnight rate (~2%).
Cost: XTB €0 up to €100k/month, IBKR ~€1.25 minimum; plus 0.10%/yr TER. Accumulating, so the 19% Belka is deferred until you sell.
EU retail generally CAN'T buy the US bill ETFs (SGOV/BIL) — no PRIIPs KID document, so the broker blocks the order. XEON is the euro-denominated equivalent.
🇺🇸 USD — BIL / SGOV (1-3 month T-bill ETF)
- In a US broker (Schwab / Fidelity / IBKR-US), search BIL or SGOV.
- A $10,000 allocation works out to ~100 shares — T-bills straight from TreasuryDirect.gov ($0 fee) are the direct alternative.
Cost: $0 commission at major US brokers; ~0.09%/yr TER; ~3.6% yield. A foreign holder pays 0% US withholding (file W-8BEN); interest is US-state-tax-exempt.
This is exactly what Safe Yield holds. A non-USD investor takes PLN/USD FX risk — match it to your own currency above.
🏦 Any — Broker cash interest (the lazy option)
- Trade Republic — 6% on PLN (promo to 31 Jul 2026), ~2-3% EUR; a real BANK deposit (€100k guarantee) and the PL branch auto-withholds Belka.
- XTB — ~2.7% PLN standard (5.1% for the first 90 days), ~3.4% USD; no threshold, but it's an investment firm, not a bank.
- IBKR — ~3.1% USD, but the first ~$10k earns 0% and the full rate needs account value over $100k.
- DEGIRO pays 0%. Fund-backed 'cash' (Trading 212 QMMF, Lightyear, Revolut Flexible) is an investment, not deposit-guaranteed.
Cost: Usually free to hold. Catch: bank deposits are guaranteed; money-market-fund 'cash' is not, and a PL resident self-reports 19% Belka on it.
⚠️ Rates are as-of mid-2026 and FLOAT with central banks; promos EXPIRE (Trade Republic's 6% ends 31 Jul 2026). We re-check these periodically — verify the live rate before acting. Full, dated table: docs/research/SAFE_YIELD.md.
Full landscape (bonds by country, broker cash rates, exotics) — docs/research/SAFE_YIELD.md.
Update history
| As of | What changed |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Model update: no material change this month |
| 2026-07-11 | Initial model portfolio published (1 position(s)) |
Grounded in published research
A documented, peer-reviewed effect — cited so you can read the source yourself, not take our word for it. Implementation and results are ours (see methodology); the underlying finding is the literature's.
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